The Big Finish Model
Weight last 10 games, 5% random noise

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Important note: percentages are not head-to-head probabilities but chances that a team will advance past a given round. So in many cases in the later rounds, they will not add up to 100%, because the remaining probability is that some other team will do so. Kansas, Duke, and Michigan State in the Midwest are a good example of that (with both Michigan State and Duke having reasonable chances of making the Final Four but neither very sure of getting past the Elite Eight).

  First Round   Second Round     Sweet 16     Elite 8     Final Four       Championship       Final Four     Elite 8     Sweet 16     Second Round   First Round  
  March 15-16   March 17-18     March 23-24     March 24-25     March 31       April 2       March 31     March 24-25     March 22-23     March 17-18   March 15-16  
                                                                               
  1
Virginia>99% chance to advance
Villanova>99% chance to advance
1  
   
Virginia>99% chance to advance
Villanova>99% chance to advance
 
  16
UMBC<1% chance to advance
           
Radford<1% chance to advance
16  
   
Virginia>99% chance to advance
Villanova>99% chance to advance
   
  8
Creighton82% chance to advance
               
Virginia Tech>99% chance to advance
8  
   
Creighton<1% chance to advance
       
Virginia Tech<1% chance to advance
   
  9
Kansas State18% chance to advance
   
Alabama<1% chance to advance
9  
   
Virginia36% chance to advance
Villanova92% chance to advance
   
  5
Kentucky>99% chance to advance
               
West Virginia>99% chance to advance
5  
   
Kentucky60% chance to advance
       
West Virginia94.5% chance to advance
 
  12
Davidson<1% chance to advance
                   
Murray State<1% chance to advance
12  
     
Kentucky<1% chance to advance
       
West Virginia<1% chance to advance
     
  4
Arizona>99% chance to advance
       
Wichita State>99% chance to advance
4  
     
Arizona40% chance to advance
       
Wichita State5.5% chance to advance
   
  13
Buffalo<1% chance to advance
   
Marshall<1% chance to advance
13  
  South  
Cincinnati60% chance to advance
Villanova78.5% chance to advance
  East  
  6
Miami>99% chance to advance
                   
Florida>99% chance to advance
6  
   
Miami<1% chance to advance
       
Florida<1% chance to advance
 
  11
Loyola (Chicago)<1% chance to advance
                   
St. Bonaventure<1% chance to advance
11  
   
Tennessee<1% chance to advance
         
Texas Tech<1% chance to advance
     
  3
Tennessee>99% chance to advance
                   
Texas Tech>99% chance to advance
3  
     
Tennessee>99% chance to advance
               
Texas Tech>99% chance to advance
   
  14
Wright State<1% chance to advance
           
Stephen F. Austin<1% chance to advance
14  
     
Cincinnati64% chance to advance
       
Purdue8% chance to advance
     
  7
Nevada99% chance to advance
       
Arkansas78.5% chance to advance
7  
   
Nevada1% chance to advance
       
Arkansas<1% chance to advance
 
  10
Texas1% chance to advance
                   
Butler21.5% chance to advance
10  
     
Cincinnati>99% chance to advance
       
Purdue>99% chance to advance
     
  2
Cincinnati>99% chance to advance
       
Purdue>99% chance to advance
2  
     
Cincinnati>99% chance to advance
       
Purdue>99% chance to advance
   
  15
Georgia State<1% chance to advance
   
Cal State Fullterton<1% chance to advance
15  
       
 
Cincinnati27.5% chance to advance
Villanova59% chance to advance
 
   
       
  1
Xavier>99% chance to advance
   
Kansas>99% chance to advance
1  
   
Xavier>99% chance to advance
   
Kansas>99% chance to advance
 
  16
Texas Southern<1% chance to advance
        Villanova        
Penn<1% chance to advance
16  
   
Xavier88% chance to advance
   
Kansas>99% chance to advance
   
  8
Missouri16% chance to advance
          National Champions          
Seton Hall>99% chance to advance
8  
     
Florida State<1% chance to advance
           
Seton Hall<1% chance to advance
   
  9
Florida State84% chance to advance
       
NC State<1% chance to advance
9  
   
Xavier5% chance to advance
   
Kansas58% chance to advance
   
  5
The Ohio State>99% chance to advance
                   
Clemson>99% chance to advance
5  
   
The Ohio State<1% chance to advance
           
Clemson45.5% chance to advance
 
  12
South Dakota State<1% chance to advance
                       
New Mexico State<1% chance to advance
12  
     
Gonzaga12% chance to advance
        0    
Auburn<1% chance to advance
     
  4
Gonzaga>99% chance to advance
        0    
Auburn>99% chance to advance
4  
     
Gonzaga>99% chance to advance
        0    
Auburn54.5% chance to advance
   
  13
UNC Greensboro<1% chance to advance
       
Carleston<1% chance to advance
13  
  West    
North Carolina8% chance to advance
       
Kansas10% chance to advance
    Midwest  
  6
Houston>99% chance to advance
   
TCU>99% chance to advance
6  
   
Houston<1% chance to advance
   
TCU<1% chance to advance
 
  11
San Diego St.<1% chance to advance
               
Syracuse<1% chance to advance
11  
   
Michigan1.5% chance to advance
   
Michigan State49.5% chance to advance
   
  3
Michigan>99% chance to advance
                   
Michigan State>99% chance to advance
3  
     
Michigan>99% chance to advance
           
Michigan State>99% chance to advance
   
  14
Montana<1% chance to advance
       
Bucknell<1% chance to advance
14  
     
North Carolina95% chance to advance
   
Duke22.5% chance to advance
     
  7
Texas A&M>99% chance to advance
   
Rhode Island>99% chance to advance
7  
   
Texas A&M<1% chance to advance
   
Rhode Island<1% chance to advance
 
  10
Providence<1% chance to advance
               
Oklahoma<1% chance to advance
10  
     
North Carolina98.5% chance to advance
   
Duke50.5% chance to advance
     
  2
North Carolina>99% chance to advance
   
Duke>99% chance to advance
2  
     
North Carolina>99% chance to advance
   
Duke>99% chance to advance
   
  15
Lipscomb<1% chance to advance
Iona<1% chance to advance
15  
                                                                               
  First Round   Second Round     Sweet 16     Elite 8     Final Four       Championship       Final Four     Elite 8     Sweet 16     Second Round   First Round  
  March 15-16   March 17-18     March 23-24     March 24-25     March 31       April 2       March 31     March 24-25     March 22-23     March 17-18   March 15-16  
                                                                               
  1 Virginia (>99% chance to advance) Villanova (>99% chance to advance) 1  
    Virginia (>99% chance to advance) Villanova (>99% chance to advance)  
  16 UMBC (<1% chance to advance)             Radford (<1% chance to advance) 16  
    Virginia (>99% chance to advance) Villanova (>99% chance to advance)    
  8 Creighton (82% chance to advance)                 Virginia Tech (>99% chance to advance) 8  
    Creighton (<1% chance to advance)         Virginia Tech (<1% chance to advance)    
  9 Kansas State (18% chance to advance)     Alabama (<1% chance to advance) 9  
    Virginia (36% chance to advance) Villanova (92% chance to advance)    
  5 Kentucky (>99% chance to advance)                 West Virginia (>99% chance to advance) 5  
    Kentucky (60% chance to advance)         West Virginia (94.5% chance to advance)  
  12 Davidson (<1% chance to advance)                     Murray State (<1% chance to advance) 12  
      Kentucky (<1% chance to advance)         West Virginia (<1% chance to advance)      
  4 Arizona (>99% chance to advance)         Wichita State (>99% chance to advance) 4  
      Arizona (40% chance to advance)         Wichita State (5.5% chance to advance)    
  13 Buffalo (<1% chance to advance)     Marshall (<1% chance to advance) 13  
  South   Cincinnati (60% chance to advance) Villanova (78.5% chance to advance)   East  
  6 Miami (>99% chance to advance)                     Florida (>99% chance to advance) 6  
    Miami (<1% chance to advance)         Florida (<1% chance to advance)  
  11 Loyola (Chicago) (<1% chance to advance)                     St. Bonaventure (<1% chance to advance) 11  
    Tennessee (<1% chance to advance)           Texas Tech (<1% chance to advance)      
  3 Tennessee (>99% chance to advance) )                     Texas Tech (>99% chance to advance) 3  
      Tennessee (>99% chance to advance)                 Texas Tech (>99% chance to advance)    
  14 Wright State (<1% chance to advance)             Stephen F. Austin (<1% chance to advance) 14  
      Cincinnati (64% chance to advance)         Purdue (8% chance to advance)      
  7 Nevada (99% chance to advance)         Arkansas (78.5% chance to advance) 7  
    Nevada (1% chance to advance)         Arkansas (<1% chance to advance)  
  10 Texas (1% chance to advance)                     Butler (21.5% chance to advance) 10  
      Cincinnati (>99% chance to advance)         Purdue (>99% chance to advance)      
  2 Cincinnati (>99% chance to advance)         Purdue (>99% chance to advance) 2  
      Cincinnati (>99% chance to advance)         Purdue (>99% chance to advance)    
  15 Georgia State (<1% chance to advance)     Cal State Fullterton (<1% chance to advance) 15  
       
  Cincinnati (27.5% chance to advance) Villanova (59% chance to advance)  
   
       
  1 Xavier (>99% chance to advance)     Kansas (>99% chance to advance) 1  
    Xavier (>99% chance to advance)     Kansas (>99% chance to advance)  
  16 Texas Southern (<1% chance to advance)         Villanova         Penn (<1% chance to advance) 16  
    Xavier (88% chance to advance)     Kansas (>99% chance to advance)    
  8 Missouri (16% chance to advance)           National Champions           Seton Hall (>99% chance to advance) 8  
      Florida State (<1% chance to advance)             Seton Hall (<1% chance to advance)    
  9 Florida State (84% chance to advance)         NC State (<1% chance to advance) 9  
    Xavier (5% chance to advance)     Kansas (58% chance to advance)    
  5 The Ohio State (>99% chance to advance)                     Clemson (>99% chance to advance) 5  
    The Ohio State (<1% chance to advance)             Clemson (45.5% chance to advance)  
  12 South Dakota State (<1% chance to advance)                         New Mexico State (<1% chance to advance) 12  
      Gonzaga (12% chance to advance)         0     Auburn (<1% chance to advance)      
  4 Gonzaga (>99% chance to advance)         0     Auburn (>99% chance to advance) 4  
      Gonzaga (>99% chance to advance)         0     Auburn (54.5% chance to advance)    
  13 UNC Greensboro (<1% chance to advance)         Carleston (<1% chance to advance) 13  
  West     North Carolina (8% chance to advance)         Kansas (10% chance to advance)     Midwest  
  6 Houston (>99% chance to advance)     TCU (>99% chance to advance) 6  
    Houston (<1% chance to advance)     TCU (<1% chance to advance)  
  11 San Diego St. (<1% chance to advance)                 Syracuse (<1% chance to advance) 11  
    Michigan (1.5% chance to advance)     Michigan State (49.5% chance to advance)    
  3 Michigan (>99% chance to advance)                     Michigan State (>99% chance to advance) 3  
      Michigan (>99% chance to advance)             Michigan State (>99% chance to advance)    
  14 Montana (<1% chance to advance)         Bucknell (<1% chance to advance) 14  
      North Carolina (95% chance to advance)     Duke (22.5% chance to advance)      
  7 Texas A&M (>99% chance to advance)     Rhode Island (>99% chance to advance) 7  
    Texas A&M (<1% chance to advance)     Rhode Island (<1% chance to advance)  
  10 Providence (<1% chance to advance)                 Oklahoma (<1% chance to advance) 10  
      North Carolina (98.5% chance to advance)     Duke (50.5% chance to advance)      
  2 North Carolina (>99% chance to advance)     Duke (>99% chance to advance) 2  
      North Carolina (>99% chance to advance)     Duke (>99% chance to advance)    
  15 Lipscomb (<1% chance to advance) Iona (<1% chance to advance) 15  
                                                                               

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